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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."